It's coming isn't it?

Three days have passed (and about 52 baffling premier league managerial appointments) since the momentous result against Germany and I am finally able to reflect with a level head and look back at the dramatic action from Tuesday. 

Fine margins are abound in tournament knockout, and this game was no exception. Pretty much pilloried by most fans for an uber-defensive set up before the game started (myself included), and those concerns promptly validated with the first 60 cagey minutes of the game, and then having taken the 1-0 lead given the most unexpected get-out-of-jail-free card by Thomas Muller's inexplicable miss. Throw all this together and you have .... firm favourites at the bookies for the whole f*cking thing, IT'S COMING HOME!, Gareth is a tactical genius!! 

On the latter point, credit where credit is due - the plan was to negate the German wing-backs, and it worked to a tee. Saka was a mobile threat before fading in the second half. And the Allardici tactic of keeping it tight and try to nick one (while polishing off a pint of wine), is made much easier when you can call on a player like Grealish with 25 minutes to go. (I'm talking about nicking a goal, not the wine.... I think)...   It's not pretty, but that never stopped Italy in their pomp. And it certainly is effective with four clean sheets on the bounce.

The challenge with the team set up, I think if you run through the team - it's hard to find anyone who didn't have a good game. Kalvin Phillips - except for the first 15 mins where he ran around chasing shadows seemingly in awe of the realisation he was playing in an Eng v Ger game - and Declan Rice, gave another set of composed performances. However, they both have a natural tendency to go backwards or sideways, and while neat and tidy... results in minimal chances created. (Note the goal against the Czechs came from Phillips running in behind). Germany were toothless up front (Timo... ), but were more effective than us in playing through the lines in midfield. Grealish immediately improved that for England when he came on. Hopefully the late goal for Kane also gives him a jump start for the rest of the tournament. 

What next?

Clearly post-Germany, confidence is high, which is good - and there's a lot to like about the team's defensive solidity, and Sterling is clearly on form. But there's a few cautious points of note for me:

• We're favourites from a betting standpoint, but not the best team in the tournament
• France and the Netherlands can give us a nice powerpoint presentation on how to come unstuck  in 90 minutes (or 120 & pens if you're looking for dramatic effect)
• I can say it now the game is gone & I can't jinx us. It wasn't a good German team. Sure, a huge monkey off our back, but this was not the team of previous Euro's 
• We're now looking at consecutive games where the opposition will sit back and try and stop us. The Scotland game is not good evidence we will handle it with the ease of which Paddy Power think we will

Predictions and Special Mentions:

• Ukraine.... After the euphoria of the Germany game, I didn't rush to catch the game, only tuning into extra time, where the game resembled a fight scene from Game of Thrones, bodies everywhere. Heroic effort by Sweden to hold on, and was highly anticipating watching the players drag themselves to the penalty spot, hopping on one leg...sadly robbed of the spectacle and had to settle for a joyous Ukrainian sports bra
• Location, location, location..... I have to be honest, this piece passed me by pre-tournament. I knew the basics - use of multiple countries etc, but hadn't focused on the specific game dynamics such as Hungary being backed by 60,000 baying fans, Germany playing in Munich, while other teams travelled from Baku to Hampden. Lay on the covid restrictions, you have a crazy situation where any support is dependent on the number of ex-pats in that city. And of course... the semi-final & final being at Wembley. Could this be the difference maker?
• Prediction Time:
• SUI v ESP:  The half-time whistle just blew, so this feels like a bit of a cheat. It's an even game with a fortunate goal for Spain. But I see them consolidating things in the 2nd half... 2-0 to Spain 
• BEL v ITA:  The game of the round. Looking fwd to it, Belgium hit by injuries, but Lukaku has the Italian's number... 2-1 Belgium
• DEN v CZE:  The hardest game to call. I see this being very even. I see this going to penalties, with Denmark coming out on top. 
• ENG v UKR: Have to pick the tournament favourites for the win here. But I think stress and pain will still be heavily involved. 2-1 after extra time.

  Time to sit back and enjoy the show....